HOLLY Cairns was grossly underestimated when she stood in the local elections in 2019.
And she was practically laughed at when she tried to parlay that into a Dáil seat in 2020. This time out, some pundits predicted that she would be fighting to scramble the last seat, or simply lose.
Deputy Cairns, who became leader of the Social Democrats in March 2023, dealt with the naysayers in her typically forthright manner by conceding in interview after interview that she was standing in ‘a very competitive constituency’.
No one – except perhaps for The Southern Star staff in its In the News podcast and also its former editor Con Downing on an RTÉ analysis – had ranked Holly in second place to Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins.
In Mallow, early on Saturday morning, it was Holly’s high numbers in ballot box after ballot box that provided the only real ripple in this count.
At 10am, with just a third of the boxes opened, tallypeople pursed their lips in surprise, reporting that Holly was showing an even split with Michael Collins.
Initially, it was being said that geography – Holly’s Church Cross outside Skibbereen not being a million miles from Michael’s base in Schull – was a factor, but in Bantry, Beara, Clonakilty, and Bandon she polled well and came out with a remarkable first preference vote of 9,421.
The Social Democrats leader ended with a total vote of 11,962, which was 19.9% of the total poll, and she was elected on the 10th count.
In 2020 Holly secured 4,696 first preferences, and did well on transfers to take the third seat.
This time, the party leader continued to do well on transfers throughout the constituency, which speaks volumes for her appeal in Cork South West.
In retaining her seat, Holly Cairns has now become a power broker and may enter into talks with Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and others, about forming the 34th Dáil.
According to one pundit, she has also done something else – she has provided the Social Democrats with ‘the perfect brand’.
Truth to power, an unparalleled social media presence, a strong presence in Dáil debates, and a refusal to engage in auction politics appears to have resonated well with the electorate.
One of the reasons some pundits gave for doubting her re-election is that as a party leader, she was too removed from the bread and butter politics – the groundwork – in West Cork.
But the party not only returned Holly Cairns in CSW, Cian O’Callaghan in Dublin Bay North, Jennifer Whitmore in Wicklow, and Gary Gannon in Dublin Central, it also added seven new TDs.
Two of the new seats are in Cork: Pádraig Rice in Cork South Central and Liam Quaide in Cork East; alongside Sinéad Gibney in Dublin Rathdown; Jen Cummins in Dublin South Central; Eoin Hayes in Dublin Bay South; Rory Hearne in Dublin North West, and Aidan Farrelly in Kildare North.
In political terms, this puts Cork on the map, second only to Dublin for the Social Democrats.
‘The party is in a very strong position to play an important role in the next Dáil. In what position, government or opposition, remains to be seen,’ the party leader told The Southern Star.
In the midst of all this, Holly gave birth to a baby girl on polling day, making it a monumental week for her, both personally and politically.
And – for the woman once elected to Cork County Council by a single vote – she had good reason not to cast her own vote on this occasion.
Holly’s mum, Madeleine McKeever, is ready with tea and a smile at the Mallow venue. (Photo: Martin Walsh)
