IT’S been another one of those weeks where reality trumps satire, dear readers.
The swift unravelling of the Assad regime in key regions of Syria has left even seasoned analysts stunned. At the heart of the drama is Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), (not to be confused with South Korean K-Pop sensation BTS), a hardline Islamist group that has made shockingly rapid territorial gains.
How did the tide turn so fast? Years of economic destitution and war fatigue have left their mark on the people and Assad’s brutal regime was always destined to crumble in a minute, much like Gaddafi’s did in Libya.
HTS exploited a patchwork of local grievances, rallying disaffected communities in areas long neglected by Damascus. What’s particularly alarming is the co-ordinated strategy they employed — targeting weak spots with precision and leveraging their reputation for brutal efficiency. Russia and Iran both had strategic reasons to support Assad’s regime, but we know they are both preoccupied by other things right now. And nature abhors a vacuum.
For those in the West quick to cheer Assad’s fall, the question remains: What comes next? If history is any guide, the answer isn’t stability, but more chaos.
The leader of HTS was originally named Ahmed al-Sharaa and grew up in a progressive household in a prosperous neighbourhood of Damascus, studying medicine before disappearing entirely down a radical path.
He now uses the nom de guerre Abu Mohammed al-Jolani and is designated a terrorist in the West with a $10m price on his head. Although his rhetoric has moderated somewhat in recent years, it is hard to predict which version of this character will turn up in the wake of Assad’s fall.
Bottom line, the Middle East seems further from peace and stability than it ever has.
It’s the Pulse of the nation
CLOSER to home, Ireland has its own crisis of credibility – albeit on a more mundane scale. Recent revelations about the Garda Pulse system revealed a litany of errors. Among the most notable: infants caught speeding. Yes, you read that right. Boy racers in the most literal sense.
It points to deeper problems in how we collect and interpret data. Official stats shape public policy, influence funding decisions, and underpin our trust in institutions. If our data is so error-ridden that we can’t separate toddlers from speed demons, what does that say about other metrics?
Take voter turnout, for instance. We bemoaned the low turnout at the latest election but it is widely thought that the numbers are not accurate.
I know of a handful of people who could vote in Dublin and back home in their home place if they took the notion. It is believed that up to 500,000 names could be on the register incorrectly due to duplications or deaths.
I mean, I have as much respect for the dead as the next man, but giving them a vote is surely a step too far? Postal votes are one thing, ‘ghostal’ votes quite another.
Maybe I’m being an ‘aul fusspot here with my pining for accuracy. Maybe our creative interpretation of maths is one of the things that makes us who we are? I mean, doesn’t Seachtain na Gaeilge run for two weeks?
Did they say codology?
AS December rolls on, most of us are planning Christmas turkey collections, getting psychologically prepared for some relentless shopping, not to mention the awful tradition that is the ‘12 Pubs of Christmas’. Meanwhile, Ireland’s political leaders are undertaking their own seasonal challenge: forming a government coalition. It’s become a festive tradition of sorts—post-election negotiations dragging well into the new year. This time, the talks have been dubbed ‘coalition-ology’ and some hacks suggest that decisions might be more efficiently made during a twelve-pub crawl. It’s still odds-on that some gene pool independents will be fished out of the swamp as a bulwark for the next government. But I would keep a keen eye on the Labour Party.
Black Friday every day
THERE’S a bit of a recurring theme of systems buckling under pressure this week. So it would be remiss of me not to mention our friends across the pond.
‘Here are my new Trump Perfumes & Colognes!’ the US president-elect wrote on his social media channel on Sunday. ‘I call them Fight, Fight, Fight, because they represent us WINNING. Great Christmas gifts for the family.’
We were worried about WWIII but we are more likely to get a prolonged if not eternal version of Black Friday with Trump in charge. He’ll be flogging hotel rooms and merch from now til the end of his term, so we’ll just have to hope he forgets to leave the UN in the meantime.
Anyone interested in his early years in New York, or at least a version of them, should check out The Apprentice, a new film part-produced in Ireland, and which is already racking up the award noms. It’s a fascinating snapshot of the era and follows some of the events that shaped him, even down to the personal family dynamic that might explain the force that is now going to sweep through the White House once more, and through our own lives too. Buckle up, everybody!
