THREE weeks ago, pundits predicted that the three sitting TDs in Cork South West – Michael Collins (Ind Ire), Christopher O’Sullivan (FF) and Holly Cairns (SD) – would benefit from a short election campaign and would, most likely, be returned to the 34th Dáil.
But if a week is a long time in politics, three weeks can see a candidate’s political fortune turn on a dime, especially when it comes to the fight for the third and final seat in Cork South West.
Michael Collins is still considered to be the front runner and bookies have him, much to his chagrin, topping the poll. Meanwhile, the received wisdom is that Holly Cairns, who was appointed leader of the Social Democrat party in March 2023, will take the second seat, given that she has a very high profile in opposition in the Dáil and on social media, as well as being popular with younger voters who are ‘done’ with political parties that date back to Ireland’s Civil War.
At this late stage in the campaign – with voting taking place on Friday November 29th – Christopher O’Sullivan, who was elected to the Dáil in 2020, is said to be under threat from the two Fine Gael candidates, Noel O’Donovan and Senator Tim Lombard, both of whom are snapping at his heels.
Pundits of all political persuasions are saying that ‘Fine Gael is buzzing’ because they believe Noel O’Donovan is poised to regain the seat that the party lost to Holly Cairns in 2020.
Senior Fine Gael politicians, such as former TD Jim O’Keeffe, has been out canvassing with Noel O’Donovan – the former garda, sitting councillor and Rosscarbery store manager – in Bandon, which is regarded as Senator Lombard’s backyard.
The optics of that have not gone unnoticed and it seems as if there is an all-out bid to regain the seat that Fine Gael has held after every election – with one exception in 1957 – since Cork South West became a three-seat constituency in 1948.
On the other hand, having two candidates on the ticket can be a risky business and some pundits are speculating that Fine Gael could split its vote, especially as its superior vote management strategy is predicated on divisional discipline throughout the constituency – a tactic that has clearly gone out the window.
Pundits have made much of the fact that Fianna Fáil has not re-elected a second sitting TD, citing Denis O’Donovan, Christy O’Sullivan (Deputy O’Sullivan’s father) and Margaret Murphy O’Mahony, as examples.
But Fianna Fáil has always polled well – sometimes more than FG who managed to turn its lesser vote into two seats – and has always held at least one seat in CSW.
The only exception to that came in 2011 when Christy O’Sullivan senior failed to be re-elected, so Fianna Fáil won’t relinquish its foothold without a fight, especially in the town of Clonakilty, which has never been without a sitting TD.
By selecting Christopher O’Sullivan, its sitting TD, and not adding a running mate to the ticket, Fianna Fáil is conscious that Deputy O’Sullivan will need to poll around 8,000 first preference votes to avoid being caught on transfers.
In fact, it is the size of each candidate’s first preference vote that will be crucial – almost as if this election were a ‘first past the post’ race, which of course it isn’t.
Ireland’s proportional representation system – which involves second and third etc preference votes – and the counting of these transfers, will ultimately determine who takes the first, second and third seat.
For half a century, Cork South West was billed as ‘predictable,’ but it has, of late, had its quirks.
What’s interesting this time out, is that there are 14 candidates vying for three seats, and that 50% of them are women: Holly Cairns (SD), Zoe Laplaud (PBP), Evie Nevin (Lab), Clare O’Callaghan (SF), Deborah O’Driscoll (TIP), Mairéad Ruane (Aon) and Mary Ryder (GP).
In 2016, Michael Collins made history by becoming the first Independent TD to be elected in CSW; while Holly Cairns was, in 2020, a clear move away from Civil War politics. It’s ironic, then, that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael could be left slugging it out for the third and final seat.
