It seemed to be setback after setback for Irish farmers in 2023. TOMMY MOYLES looks at some of the prospects ahead for the sector in the New Year
ONE of the best things about farming in 2023 is that the year is over.
Speaking to farmers and those in the agri-sector, I don’t recall as many people looking forward to seeing a year disappear into the rear-view mirror as the one just gone. It was Irish farming’s annus horribilis.
Rain, falling commodity prices, relatively high input costs, teething problems with the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), new nitrates derogation measures, rising interest rates, more rain, TB, Revenue changing their interpretation of VAT reclaim rules and more new nitrates regulations. That’s a snap shot of farming in 2023.
It’s easy to see why farmers are glad to see the back of it. Farmers barely had time to grasp the impact each policy change had on their farm before the next one was announced.
Beef farmers experienced a solid start to prices up until May before it ventured south earlier than usual, then staged a late comeback in December.It’s scant consolation but going through those issues shows the resilience farmers have and have always displayed. It’s the nature of the business where tomorrow is almost more important than today.
Most businesses make quarterly or five-year plans when investing in their future but for farming that plan may stretch into the next generation.
Farmers talking about the weather can be very subjective. There’s a touch of the Goldilocks factor to it. Too good, too bad and rarely just right. Weather came good in February. We weren’t to know it then but it proved to be too good.
A glance at the figures from the Met Éireann weather station on Sherkin Island tells its own story. The Long- Term Average (LTA) rainfall figures recorded there from 1981 to 2010 for February is 101.4mm. This year it stood at 29.4mm. Only two months in the last four years, June 21 and August 22, were drier than February 2023.
March made up for it with rain levels almost double the LTA. Drizzle wouldn’t leave us for most of April but by early June there were concerns that we were heading for drought as grass and crop growth came under pressure. The phrase, ‘a drop of rain is wanted’, made its way into farming conversations.
Then it rained all through summer. From July to October 588mm fell putting it almost 202mm above the LTA. This rain made farming challenging right across the sectors within the West Cork region.
As challenging as the weather was for livestock producers, those growing crops struggled to catch a break from bad weather at both planting and harvesting. It eventually resulted in the government stepping in and bringing in an unharvested crop payment to try and help farmers who were unable to harvest grain.
Dairy farmer confidence was sky high a year ago. Despite inflated input prices caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, demand drove milk prices to record levels and the base price was skirting 60c/l in autumn 2022. Then prices tumbled.
From January to April 19c/l was wiped off while input costs only slipped marginally. Milk stabilised in May only for it to slide again by another 5c/l before finally moving in an upward direction when the November price was announced in December.
That early year confidence had dissipated by June as margins tightened on farms.
Despite the dramatic slide in price, Carbery chief executive Jason Hawkins told dairy farmers at the West Cork IFA dairy conference in November that Carbery were on track to pay their second highest milk price ever this year. The issue remains that input prices eroded so much of that income.
As if that wasn’t enough to deal with, news came through that there would be more changes coming to the nitrates derogation. A suite of new measures came into effect in January, and in early summer it was announced that parts of the county would have a reduced nitrates limit of 220kg Org N/Ha.
Agriculture Minister Charlie McConalogue faced dairy farmers' ire over the reductions in the nitrates derogation.
Prior to this the upper limit for all derogation farmers was 250kg Org N/ha. What became known as ‘the Red Map’ was published by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and it highlighted the areas likely to be impacted first. Detailed maps didn’t appear until October and farmers didn’t get official confirmation of whether they would be impacted or not until mid-November, six weeks out from when these changes would come into effect.
Relative to tillage and dairy farming, the dry stock experience of 2023 was less of a rollercoaster. After two super years sheep prices took a tumble from late spring while beef farmers experienced a solid start to prices up until May, before it ventured south earlier than usual, and then staged a late comeback in December.
So, what are farmers hoping for in 2024?
Improved prices would probably top the list but a boring year when it comes to weather and a settled spell of policy would be welcomed by farmers.
There’s another group who I’m sure would love that at least for the first five months of 2024 too: politicians. If I was a politician, especially a government one, I’d be hoping that three or four of those issues I mentioned earlier can be resolved ahead of the local and European elections pencilled in for early June.
The IFA and ICMSA have new presidents taking over in 2024 and Francie Gorman and Denis Drennan are likely to want to hit the ground running in terms of making an impact and will look to channel farmers political clout ahead of polling.
Maybe this is something that farmers can’t take for granted anymore.
In 2023, 128,712 farmers applied online for the new Basic Income Support for Sustainable (BISS). That’s similar to the population of a five-seat Dáil Éireann constituency. Adding family votes and those of people involved in the agri-business sphere in the mix, and that farmer voting block expands.
Something else worth keeping an eye on is the milk supply contract for Kerry suppliers is due to expire in late 2024. A group of over 300 Kerry suppliers are in the process of setting up a producer organisation where one of the aims is to offer their collective milk pool out to the highest bidder.
Could some of this milk find its way to Ballineen if the nitrates derogation impacts on West Cork’s cow numbers?
