A NEW report by Teagasc has predicted a ‘substantial’ recovery in dairy farm incomes overall in 2024.
The report on farm incomes provides estimates of average incomes for various farm types in 2024 and forecasts farm incomes for 2025.
It stated that Irish agriculture faced a complex set of challenges in 2024 shaped by periods of unfavourable weather.
The report estimated the average dairy farm income for dairy farms 2024 should be €89,000, up significantly on the 2023 estimated average farm income of €49,432.
‘For dairy farms, a delayed start to the grazing season was followed by poor-mid season grass growth, leaving milk production about 5% below normal by mid-year,’ the report stated. ‘However, with excellent late season grazing conditions, along with increased feed use, milk production is expected to down about 2% for the year as a whole. While it was a poor year for grass growth overall, dairy farms have seen a substantial income recovery in 2024, as higher milk prices, up 15% on the 2023 level, have driven a recovery in margins.
‘The typical dairy margin should be over 13 cent per litre in 2024, an increase of over 6c per litre on the 2023 average. Taking account of the drop in milk production, the average dairy farm income in 2024 should be approximately €89,000, an increase of 80% relative to very low level recorded in 2023.’
For cattle rearing farms, incomes should show a modest increase in 2024, but the sector’s income remains largely reliant on support payments.
The average income on a cattle rearing farm in 2024 is estimated to be approximately €9,500, an increase of 28% on the extremely low 2023 level.
Finished cattle prices have shown seasonal fluctuation, but the annual average price in 2024 should be up 4% on the 2023 level.
The average income on a sheep farm is estimated to be approximately €15,000, an increase of 19% on the low income level of 2023.
Sheep and lamb prices rose significantly in 2024, up by about 15% on the 2023 level due to tighter EU supplies, output volume per hectare is estimated to have declined by 10% in 2024 due to lower ewe numbers and weaning rates.
The average income on a tillage farm in 2024 is estimated to be approximately €30,000, an increase of 40% relative to 2023, though 2023 was seen as a disastrous year, and the average tillage income well down on the five year average.
Pig production was more profitable in 2024 and pig production increased by 3% in volume terms.
The average farm income in 2024, is estimated to be up 49% to almost €29,200, but the increase is almost entirely driven by the increase in income experienced in the dairy and tillage sectors.
Fertiliser prices fell considerably in 2024. While animal feed prices also decreased, feed volumes were up, mainly due to the adverse weather. Expenditure on fuel remained relativity stable, while electricity prices fell considerably.
Looking ahead to 2025, economic growth at the global level is expected to be on a par with 2024, geopolitical uncertainties – including the decisions of the Trump administration, the war in Ukraine, and events in the Middle East – could have an adverse impact.
‘Forecasting key input prices for 2025 is challenging, as unanticipated geopolitical considerations could affect trade in commodity markets and the price outlook,’ said the report.
The average farm income in 2025, is forecast by Teagasc to increase by 22% to €35,700, but the increase will be largely driven by improved incomes in the dairy and tillage sectors.
