WITH three seats in the Cork North West constituency – which stretches as far as Newcestown in the south up as far as Rockchapel in the north – it will be a challenging canvassing campaign trail for any election candidate.
Since the last election, Cork North West has also lost Ballincollig to the city’s Cork North Central, while it has gained a small population from the Mallow area.
It was more of the same in 2020 with Fianna Fáil claiming two seats (Aindrias Moynihan and Michael Moynihan) and Fine Gael’s Michael Creed taking the other seat.
Political pundits are not expecting any great surprises come election day and it is expected that Fianna Fáil will win two seats again with Fine Gael taking one.
However, could Independent Ireland’s candidate Walter Ryan Purcell cause an upset?
The political landscape has changed dramatically since the last election and with Deputy Creed now not standing for re-election, Fine Gael bosses will be keen to retain that seat.
It could prove to be third time lucky for former county mayor and sitting Mallow-based Cllr John Paul O’Shea, who is standing in his third general election – he ran as an independent candidate in his first outing in 2016 before switching to Fine Gael in 2020.
He received 7,065 first preference votes four years ago, coming in behind Deputy Creed who took the third seat.
Cllr O’Shea is being joined on the party ticket by Cllr Michael Creed – a cousin of outgoing TD Michael Creed – and it will be interesting to see which candidate could win a seat for Fine Gael.
Four years ago, Sinn Féin made the mistake of not fielding a candidate in Cork North West and failed to take advantage of the party’s national ‘bounce’, which saw them securing the most Dáil seats – 37 – in the party’s history.
Party bosses had been pinning their hopes on former MEP Liadh Ní Riada winning a seat for them this time around, but when she opted not to run, they were faced with finding another candidate.
Nicole Ryan was selected in recent months. A strong campaigner on social and women’s issues, it remains to be seen if her political profile is high enough to get the party over the line.
It also remains to be seen if recent scandals that have engulfed the party at national level could affect voter confidence.
As the poll topper in 2020, Fianna Fáil’s Aindrias Moynihan (9,628 first preference votes) should poll well but the loss of Ballincollig in the constituency since the last election may affect his overall vote.
His colleague Michael Moynihan (8,651 first preference votes in 2020) who took the second seat last time around is also expected to poll well and win another seat for Fianna Fáil.
Speaking to The Southern Star, Prof Gary Murphy from the school of law and government in DCU, thinks the so-called ‘Harris Hop’ should ensure that Fine Gael retains its seat in Cork North West.
‘Cllr John O’Shea got a reasonably decent vote in 2020. Although the fact that he was nearly 1,000 votes behind the FF candidate in the first count of the recent local elections must be a bit worrying,’ he said.
‘Still, I think with Sinn Féin’s national struggles and Fine Gael’s good poll showing, it would be a terrible day for Fine Gael if they didn’t hold the seat. I think winning in a three-seater here looks too much of an ask for Sinn Féin.’
Prof Murphy was also reminded of how things in politics can turn around in just 12 months.
‘When we last corresponded, such was the consistency of Sinn Féin poll numbers that it looked odds-on they would win the seat, but I can’t see it now.’
Other candidates vying for the seat include Colette Finn of the Green Party and Aontu’s Becky Kealy, who both contested the last general election, former Goleen resident Walter Ryan Purcell for Independent Ireland and People Before Profit’s Joe Moore.
But Prof Murphy predicts that there will be no change in Cork North West after November 29th, with Fianna Fáil taking two seats and Fine Gael taking one seat.
