Lady and gentlemen ... RESUME YOUR SEATS!
THE election results in Cork South West mirrored the country’s political landscape by returning its three sitting TDs – Independent Ireland leader Michael Collins, Social Democrats leader Holly Cairns, and Fianna Fáil’s Christopher O’Sullivan.
But in doing so, the three-seater constituency – the furthest geographically from Dáil Éireann – has punched above its weight by returning a Social Democrats leader with 11 TDs, as well as an Independent Ireland leader who can count four TDs amongst his ranks, but is hoping to approach other like-minded independents and maybe bring that number to a grouping of eight or nine.
In the coming days, and weeks, both leaders will enter into discussions with Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin and Fine Gael’s Simon Harris to consider the possibility of forming a coalition government.
‘Our party is in a very strong position to play an important role in the next Dáil, but in what position – in government or in opposition – remains to be seen,’ said the Social Democrats leader, who confounded her critics by coming in a strong second in Cork South West, after some pundits predicted she would lose her seat.
SD party leader Holly Cairns posted this photo to Instagram after giving birth to a girl on election day.
Michael Collins, who began his political career as an independent councillor in 2014, and was first elected to the Dáil in 2016, topped the poll again.
The Independent Ireland leader’s first preference vote was down from 11,712 in 2020 to 11,002 on this occasion, and he had to wait until the eighth count to be first past the post.
One explanation given for the drop in his vote is that both he and Holly Cairns are near neighbours, geographically speaking, and her increase cut into some of his vote, as was reflected by the tall people as they counted the votes from the ballot boxes in that area.
Of course, widespread assumptions that he would once again top the poll could also have cost him votes.
Meanwhile, Fine Gael’s hopes of regaining its historic seat in Cork South West – the birthplace of Michael Collins and therefore its spiritual heartland – were dashed in a second consecutive election.
The party had high hopes that Cllr Noel O’Donovan would be the one to regain the seat, perhaps with the help of transfers from his running mate Senator Tim Lombard.
This was Sen Lombard’s second time running, having failed in his 2020 bid to retain the seat vacated by Jim Daly (FG). Back then, Sen Lombard lost to Holly Cairns who, for a first-time candidate, did remarkably well on transfers and was brought over the line by a monumental 3,000 transfers from Sinn Féin’s Paul Hayes.
But, as some knowledgeable pundits and indeed Deputy Christopher O’Sullivan (FF) himself predicted in a constituency letter seen by The Southern Star, Fine Gael’s strategy of running two candidates did not work.
In a letter to supporters, prior to the Fianna Fáil selection convention, Christopher O’Sullivan wrote: ‘Fine Gael have handed us a golden opportunity by deciding on a two-candidate strategy. We should grasp that opportunity and run one candidate.’
Despite the 23% showing for Fine Gael – an increase of 4.6% on the 2020 figure – the party’s vote was split and Noel O’Donovan was too far behind in first preferences to catch up on his Fianna Fáil rival.
Shortly after the result was announced, Sen Lombard told The Southern Star that he would be considering his position.
‘I will take stock now and see what happens,’ said Sen Lombard, who may not seek re-election to the agricultural panel in the upcoming Seanad Éireann.
‘I have been in politics now for over 20 years. That is a significant portion of my life, and we will have to see what we do in the next few weeks and months ahead,’ he added.
There is, of course, speculation that Cllr Noel O’Donovan may be elevated to the Seanad in due course, possibly as a nominee of the Taoiseach, in a bid to bolster Fine Gael’s standing in Cork South West.
